US and Israel Launch Strikes on Iran as Nuclear Crisis Escalates
The United States and Israel have launched direct military strikes against Iran, and Iran has responded with counterstrikes, marking the onset of open interstate war in the Middle East. This escalation follows the apparent collapse of US-Iran nuclear negotiations, in which Washington demanded full denuclearization — terms Tehran was never likely to accept. The conflict represents the most consequential military confrontation in the region since the 2003 Iraq invasion.
In the near term, the strikes reshape the security architecture of the entire Middle East and test every alliance structure from the Gulf to Europe. Energy markets, maritime chokepoints, and proxy networks across Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen, and Syria face immediate destabilization. The human cost to ordinary Iranians — already enduring decades of sanctions — now compounds with direct warfare against state infrastructure.
On a five-to-ten-year horizon, this conflict will define whether nuclear nonproliferation survives as a governing norm or collapses entirely. If military force becomes the accepted mechanism for denuclearization, other threshold states will accelerate covert programs rather than negotiate. The precedent set here reverberates through every future conversation about North Korea, Saudi Arabia, and beyond.
At the epochal scale, February 2026 may mark a turning point in humanity's relationship with existential risk. Interstate war between nuclear-capable and nuclear-aspirant states, waged under a doctrine of preemption, raises the probability of catastrophic miscalculation. The Anthropocene already tests civilization through climate disruption; adding great-power military conflict over weapons of mass destruction compresses the margin for error in an era when humanity can least afford it.
1 · Do
1.1
Today · with Defense Secretary, CIA Director, State Department
Convene emergency security briefing with defense, intelligence, and diplomatic teams to assess immediate military and economic implications of US-Israeli strikes on Iran and prepare contingency responses for further escalation (Addresses: National Security)
Today · with Intelligence Community, CENTCOM, Embassy Security Officers
Monitor Iranian counterattack capabilities and regional ally responses through real-time intelligence feeds, focusing on potential threats to US assets, personnel, and allies in the Middle East theater (Addresses: Crisis Management)
This Week · with State Department, NSC, Omani Foreign Ministry contacts
Review diplomatic failure analysis regarding Iran's rejection of maximalist nuclear demands and assess whether alternative negotiation frameworks through Oman or other intermediaries remain viable post-strikes (Addresses: Strategic Planning)
This Week · with Treasury Department, Energy Department, Economic Advisory Council
Assess economic and energy market disruption risks from Israel-Iran War escalation, including oil supply chain vulnerabilities, sanctions effectiveness, and potential coordination with allies on strategic reserves (Addresses: Economic Security)
This Month · with Policy Planning Staff, Pentagon, Israeli Defense Ministry
Prepare comprehensive post-conflict strategy options for Iranian nuclear program management, considering regime stability scenarios and long-term regional security architecture in coordination with Israeli and regional partners (Addresses: Long-term Strategy)
United States and Israel Execute Coordinated Military Strikes Against Iran US and Israeli forces launched coordinated attacks on Iranian nuclear and military infrastructure in late February 2026, with Iran responding through counterstrikes that established two-way military conflict. This represents the first direct interstate war between these powers, fundamentally altering Middle East security dynamics and testing alliance structures from the Gulf to Europe.
2.2
Iran Rejects Maximalist US Denuclearization Demands Before War Erupts Washington demanded Iran destroy its nuclear facilities, surrender highly enriched uranium stockpiles to the United States, and commit to permanent denuclearization—terms ISW analysts characterized as maximalist and unlikely to be accepted. The collapse of this diplomatic track, mediated by Oman as recently as February 27, directly preceded military operations and demonstrates how unrealistic negotiating positions can trigger conflict escalation.
2.3
Military Preemption Sets Dangerous Precedent for Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime Using force as the primary mechanism for denuclearization fundamentally undermines the negotiation-based nonproliferation framework that has governed international relations for decades. This precedent will likely accelerate covert nuclear programs in threshold states like Saudi Arabia and North Korea, as leaders conclude that diplomatic engagement invites military attack rather than security guarantees.
2.4
Regional Proxy Networks Face Immediate Destabilization Across Four Theaters Iran's proxy networks spanning Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen, and Syria now confront the reality of their patron state under direct military attack, creating unpredictable cascade effects across multiple conflict zones. These groups must choose between escalating in support of Tehran or preserving their local power bases, with either choice potentially destabilizing fragile ceasefires and political arrangements throughout the region.
2.5
Energy Markets Confront Supply Disruption Through Critical Maritime Chokepoints The conflict threatens energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz and other critical maritime passages that Iran can target in retaliation, potentially disrupting global oil supplies and driving energy price volatility. Economic decision-makers must now factor direct military conflict between major regional powers into supply chain planning and energy security strategies.
2.6
Iranian Civilians Bear Compound Burden of Sanctions Plus Direct Warfare Ordinary Iranians, already enduring decades of economic sanctions, now face the additional hardship of direct military strikes on state infrastructure that supports civilian services. This dual pressure creates humanitarian concerns while potentially strengthening regime control through rally-around-the-flag effects, complicating assessments of internal political stability.
2.7
Nuclear-Capable States Enter Open Warfare Under Preemption Doctrine February 2026 marks unprecedented escalation between nuclear-capable Israel and nuclear-aspirant Iran, with military action justified under preemption rather than response to direct attack. This compression of decision-making timelines and lowered threshold for force use dramatically increases risks of catastrophic miscalculation in an era when humanity faces multiple existential threats simultaneously.
2.8
Trump Administration Strategic Objectives Remain Unclear Amid Military Action Chatham House experts are questioning what President Trump hopes to achieve through military strikes, suggesting unclear strategic endgame beyond tactical destruction of Iranian capabilities. Without defined political objectives, military action risks creating open-ended conflict that could expand beyond original scope and complicate future diplomatic resolution.
3 · What changed
3.1 · Risk & Security
US and Israeli Forces Strike Iran Triggering Counterattacks and Regional War
The United States and Israel launched coordinated military strikes against Iran in late February 2026, targeting nuclear and military infrastructure. Iran responded with counterstrikes, marking a dramatic escalation into open warfare between state actors. The strikes reportedly targeted the ENTC (likely a nuclear-related facility) during what Critical Threats describes as the 'Israel-Iran War.' Chatham House experts are assessing the implications for the Iranian regime, ordinary Iranians, and the broader Middle East region, while questioning what President Trump hopes to achieve through military action.
3.2 · Regulatory Changes
Iran Rejects US Nuclear Demands as Diplomacy Collapses Before Strikes
Prior to the military strikes, the US reportedly demanded that Iran destroy its nuclear facilities, surrender its highly enriched uranium stockpile to the United States, and commit to a permanent denuclearization deal. Iran was assessed as unlikely to accept these conditions, which analysts at ISW characterized as maximalist. Parallel diplomatic channels existed, with Oman's Busaidi reportedly involved in US-Iran nuclear negotiations as late as February 27. The collapse of this diplomatic track appears to have preceded or coincided with the decision to use military force.
4 · What we could and could not see
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